RAMAS Risk Calc 4 0 Software

Author: Scott Ferson
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781566705769
Format: PDF, Mobi
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Many analysts use point estimates and ignore their uncertainty. But we can never be sure about the exact values of numbers based on data. And no practical calculations are without error, even though they may have the appearance of precision. RAMASâ Risk Calc 4.0 Software: Risk Assessment with Uncertain Numbers uses traditional methods such as probability theory and interval analysis and the newest techniques such as probability bounds analysis and fuzzy arithmetic to quantify uncertainty in risk assessments. It creates a convenient environment for computing in which all uncertainties are carried forward automatically. Providing examples in four major application areas, Risk Calc brings sophisticated methods of uncertainty analysis into the reach of anyone who can do arithmetic on a calculator.

Environmental Modelling

Author: Keith Beven
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 020393248X
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk

Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing

Author: Andrew Dienstfrey
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3642326773
Format: PDF
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This book constitutes the refereed post-proceedings of the 10th IFIP WG 2.5 Working Conference on Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing, WoCoUQ 2011, held in Boulder, CO, USA, in August 2011. The 24 revised papers were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. They are organized in the following topical sections: UQ need: risk, policy, and decision making, UQ theory, UQ tools, UQ practice, and hot topics. The papers are followed by the records of the discussions between the participants and the speaker.

Optimization and Anti Optimization of Structures Under Uncertainty

Author: Isaac Elishakoff
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 190897818X
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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The volume presents a collaboration between internationally recognized experts on anti-optimization and structural optimization, and summarizes various novel ideas, methodologies and results studied over 20 years. The book vividly demonstrates how the concept of uncertainty should be incorporated in a rigorous manner during the process of designing real-world structures. The necessity of anti-optimization approach is first demonstrated, then the anti-optimization techniques are applied to static, dynamic and buckling problems, thus covering the broadest possible set of applications. Finally, anti-optimization is fully utilized by a combination of structural optimization to produce the optimal design considering the worst-case scenario. This is currently the only book that covers the combination of optimization and anti-optimization. It shows how various optimization techniques are used in the novel anti-optimization technique, and how the structural optimization can be exponentially enhanced by incorporating the concept of worst-case scenario, thereby increasing the safety of the structures designed in various fields of engineering. Contents:Optimization or Making the Best in the Presence of Certainty/UncertaintyGeneral Formulation of Anti-OptimizationAnti-Optimization in Static ProblemsAnti-Optimization in BucklingAnti-Optimization in VibrationAnti-Optimization via FEM-Based Interval AnalysisAnti-Optimization and Probabilistic DesignHybrid Optimization with Anti-Optimization under Uncertainty or Making the Best Out of the Worst Readership: Graduate students, professionals and academics in the field of mechanical engineering. Keywords:Anti-Optimization;Structural Optimization;Convex Model;Worst-Case Scenario;Ellipsoidal Model;Worst Excitation;Worst Imperfection;Homology Design;Interval AnalysisKey Features:This is the first book on optimization and anti-optimization Tackles two of the most important facets of engineering — safety and optimality — in a unified manner; the book may prove to be a turning point in both optimization and uncertainty studies by the suggested hybrid treatmentReviews:“Many applications to the optimal structural design are presented. Since some of the criteria are based on worst case scenarios, nested or two-stage optimization problems have to be considered. The book contains many examples and a large number of references.”Zentralblatt MATH

Proceedings

Author: International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780894486401
Format: PDF, Docs
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Risk based Decisionmaking in Water Resources IX

Author: Yacov Y. Haimes
Publisher: Amer Society of Civil Engineers
ISBN: 9780784405772
Format: PDF, Mobi
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This volume, Risk-Based Decisionmaking in Water Resources IX, is a collection of papers presented at the Ninth United Engineering Foundation Conference held in Santa Barbara, California on October 15-20, 2000. Participants from government, industry, and universities share their knowledge and experience in the rapidly growing field of risk-based decisionmaking in water resources. Topics include new theoretical and methodological frontiers and the economic dimensions of risk analysis, legislative initiatives and risk assessment, maintenance and rehabilitation, reliability of physical infrastructure, flood frequency and climate non-stationarity, and risk of extreme events.

Multidimensional Analysis

Author: George W. Hart
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387944173
Format: PDF, ePub
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This book deals with the mathematical properties of dimensioned quantities, such as length, mass, voltage, and viscosity. Beginning with a careful examination of how one expresses the numerical results of a measurement and uses these results in subsequent manipulations, the author rigorously constructs the notion of dimensioned numbers and discusses their algebraic structure. The result is a unification of linear algebra and traditional dimensional analysis that can be extended from the scalars to which the traditional analysis is perforce restricted to multidimensional vectors of the sort frequently encountered in engineering, systems theory, economics, and other applications.

Books in Print

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Books in print is the major source of information on books currently published and in print in the United States. The database provides the record of forthcoming books, books in-print, and books out-of-print.

Ecological Modeling in Risk Assessment

Author: Robert A. Pastorok
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1420032321
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Toxic chemicals can exert effects on all levels of the biological hierarchy, from cells to organs to organisms to populations to entire ecosystems. However, most risk assessment models express their results in terms of effects on individual organisms, without corresponding information on how populations, groups of species, or whole ecosystems may respond to chemical stressors. Ecological Modeling in Risk Assessment: Chemical Effects on Populations, Ecosystems, and Landscapes takes a new approach by compiling and evaluating models that can be used in assessing risk at the population, ecosystem, and landscape levels. The authors give an overview of the current process of ecological risk assessment for toxic chemicals and of how modeling of populations, ecosystems, and landscapes could improve the status quo. They present a classification of ecological models and explain the differences between population, ecosystem, landscape, and toxicity-extrapolation models. The authors describe the model evaluation process and define evaluation criteria. Finally, the results of the model evaluations are presented in a concise format with recommendations on modeling approaches to use now and develop further. The authors present and evaluate various models on the basis of their realism and complexity, prediction of relevant assessment endpoints, treatment of uncertainty, regulatory acceptance, resource efficiency, and other criteria. They provide models that will improve the ecological relevance of risk assessments and make data collection more cost-effective. Ecological Modeling in Risk Assessment serves as a reference for selecting and applying the best models when performing a risk assessment.