Probability Models

Author: John Haigh
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 144715343X
Format: PDF, Kindle
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The purpose of this book is to provide a sound introduction to the study of real-world phenomena that possess random variation. It describes how to set up and analyse models of real-life phenomena that involve elements of chance. Motivation comes from everyday experiences of probability, such as that of a dice or cards, the idea of fairness in games of chance, and the random ways in which, say, birthdays are shared or particular events arise. Applications include branching processes, random walks, Markov chains, queues, renewal theory, and Brownian motion. This textbook contains many worked examples and several chapters have been updated and expanded for the second edition. Some mathematical knowledge is assumed. The reader should have the ability to work with unions, intersections and complements of sets; a good facility with calculus, including integration, sequences and series; and appreciation of the logical development of an argument. Probability Models is designed to aid students studying probability as part of an undergraduate course on mathematics or mathematics and statistics.

An Introduction to Probabilistic Modeling

Author: Pierre Bremaud
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461210461
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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Introduction to the basic concepts of probability theory: independence, expectation, convergence in law and almost-sure convergence. Short expositions of more advanced topics such as Markov Chains, Stochastic Processes, Bayesian Decision Theory and Information Theory.

Regression

Author: N. H. Bingham
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781848829695
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Regression is the branch of Statistics in which a dependent variable of interest is modelled as a linear combination of one or more predictor variables, together with a random error. The subject is inherently two- or higher- dimensional, thus an understanding of Statistics in one dimension is essential. Regression: Linear Models in Statistics fills the gap between introductory statistical theory and more specialist sources of information. In doing so, it provides the reader with a number of worked examples, and exercises with full solutions. The book begins with simple linear regression (one predictor variable), and analysis of variance (ANOVA), and then further explores the area through inclusion of topics such as multiple linear regression (several predictor variables) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). The book concludes with special topics such as non-parametric regression and mixed models, time series, spatial processes and design of experiments. Aimed at 2nd and 3rd year undergraduates studying Statistics, Regression: Linear Models in Statistics requires a basic knowledge of (one-dimensional) Statistics, as well as Probability and standard Linear Algebra. Possible companions include John Haigh’s Probability Models, and T. S. Blyth & E.F. Robertsons’ Basic Linear Algebra and Further Linear Algebra.

Basic Probability Theory with Applications

Author: Mario Lefebvre
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387749950
Format: PDF, Mobi
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The main intended audience for this book is undergraduate students in pure and applied sciences, especially those in engineering. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the probability theory they generally need in their training. Although the treatment of the subject is surely su?cient for non-mathematicians, I intentionally avoided getting too much into detail. For instance, topics such as mixed type random variables and the Dirac delta function are only brie?y mentioned. Courses on probability theory are often considered di?cult. However, after having taught this subject for many years, I have come to the conclusion that one of the biggest problems that the students face when they try to learn probability theory, particularly nowadays, is their de?ciencies in basic di?erential and integral calculus. Integration by parts, for example, is often already forgotten by the students when they take a course on probability. For this reason, I have decided to write a chapter reviewing the basic elements of di?erential calculus. Even though this chapter might not be covered in class, the students can refer to it when needed. In this chapter, an e?ort was made to give the readers a good idea of the use in probability theory of the concepts they should already know. Chapter 2 presents the main results of what is known as elementary probability, including Bayes’ rule and elements of combinatorial analysis.

Basic Stochastic Processes

Author: Zdzislaw Brzezniak
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1447105338
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Stochastic processes are tools used widely by statisticians and researchers working in the mathematics of finance. This book for self-study provides a detailed treatment of conditional expectation and probability, a topic that in principle belongs to probability theory, but is essential as a tool for stochastic processes. The book centers on exercises as the main means of explanation.

Mathematics for Finance

Author: Marek Capinski
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1852338466
Format: PDF, Docs
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This textbook contains the fundamentals for an undergraduate course in mathematical finance aimed primarily at students of mathematics. Assuming only a basic knowledge of probability and calculus, the material is presented in a mathematically rigorous and complete way. The book covers the time value of money, including the time structure of interest rates, bonds and stock valuation; derivative securities (futures, options), modelling in discrete time, pricing and hedging, and many other core topics. With numerous examples, problems and exercises, this book is ideally suited for independent study.

Understanding Markov Chains

Author: Nicolas Privault
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9814451517
Format: PDF, ePub
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This book provides an undergraduate introduction to discrete and continuous-time Markov chains and their applications. A large focus is placed on the first step analysis technique and its applications to average hitting times and ruin probabilities. Classical topics such as recurrence and transience, stationary and limiting distributions, as well as branching processes, are also covered. Two major examples (gambling processes and random walks) are treated in detail from the beginning, before the general theory itself is presented in the subsequent chapters. An introduction to discrete-time martingales and their relation to ruin probabilities and mean exit times is also provided, and the book includes a chapter on spatial Poisson processes with some recent results on moment identities and deviation inequalities for Poisson stochastic integrals. The concepts presented are illustrated by examples and by 72 exercises and their complete solutions.

Measure Integral and Probability

Author: Marek Capinski
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1447106458
Format: PDF, Kindle
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Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.

Mathematics for the Life Sciences

Author: Glenn Ledder
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461472768
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
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​​ ​​ Mathematics for the Life Sciences provides present and future biologists with the mathematical concepts and tools needed to understand and use mathematical models and read advanced mathematical biology books. It presents mathematics in biological contexts, focusing on the central mathematical ideas, and providing detailed explanations. The author assumes no mathematics background beyond algebra and precalculus. Calculus is presented as a one-chapter primer that is suitable for readers who have not studied the subject before, as well as readers who have taken a calculus course and need a review. This primer is followed by a novel chapter on mathematical modeling that begins with discussions of biological data and the basic principles of modeling. The remainder of the chapter introduces the reader to topics in mechanistic modeling (deriving models from biological assumptions) and empirical modeling (using data to parameterize and select models). The modeling chapter contains a thorough treatment of key ideas and techniques that are often neglected in mathematics books. It also provides the reader with a sophisticated viewpoint and the essential background needed to make full use of the remainder of the book, which includes two chapters on probability and its applications to inferential statistics and three chapters on discrete and continuous dynamical systems. The biological content of the book is self-contained and includes many basic biology topics such as the genetic code, Mendelian genetics, population dynamics, predator-prey relationships, epidemiology, and immunology. The large number of problem sets include some drill problems along with a large number of case studies. The latter are divided into step-by-step problems and sorted into the appropriate section, allowing readers to gradually develop complete investigations from understanding the biological assumptions to a complete analysis.

The Pleasures of Probability

Author: Richard Isaac
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 146120819X
Format: PDF, Mobi
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The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairly decent mathematical background in elementary algebra to this world of probabil ity, to the way of thinking typical of probability, and the kinds of problems to which probability can be applied. I have used examples from a wide variety of fields to motivate the discussion of concepts.